A PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR FORECASTING LETHAL OUTCOMES IN COMBINED ACETIC ACID AND ETHANOL INTOXICATION USING HEMOLYTIC BIOMARKERS
Keywords:
acetic acid intoxication, ethanol co-ingestion, intravascular hemolysis, probit model, mortality risk prediction, forensic toxicology, automated diagnostics.Abstract
Acute poisonings represent a significant portion of violent deaths in forensic practice, with acetic acid intoxications being particularly prevalent due to its widespread household use. A critical diagnostic and prognostic challenge arises in cases where acetic acid ingestion is complicated by concurrent alcohol intoxication, a combination observed in a majority of clinical and forensic cases. The absence of standardized, quantitative parameters for assessing injury severity and mortality risk in such combined poisonings necessitates the development of objective biomarkers and robust statistical models. This study posits that intravascular hemolysis, a direct consequence of systemic acidemia and corrosive tissue damage, serves as a quantifiable and pathophysiologically grounded criterion for this purpose.
